Understanding the Relic System

Zanimljiv guide napravljen od strane Alasha sa EU foruma o kombinacijama relica za legendary iteme

Ja osobno nemam pristup spreadsheet-u ali sam ga trazio pa cim mi odobre prenjet cu ga vama


It was most of all a sudden impulse that made me embark on this
project, and in terms this post. My gut feelings had long told me that
there was a pattern in the process of combining relics that couldn't be
attributed to a completely random system, so when my kinmate Marna told
me he had two thousand relics ready to be combined, we began plotting
down the results. Now, two days later, my head is spinning with =SUMIF
formulas and percentages, but the result - I think - is quite
interesting.

Let us begin by looking at the spreadsheet: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.].
In the first sheet you find see the "Summary", which in essence shows
the conclusions from the two data sheets - "Regular Data" and "Critical
Data". Let's focus on the summary for now - this is divided into four
sections:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

This is the breakdown of what happens most often when you press
"Combine" at the Relic Master. What it means, is that when combining 5
tier 1 relics you get on average 0,28 tier 1 relics back, along with
1,27 tier 2 relics. As you can already see, there's a distinct pattern
showing throughout the tiers, but we'll get to that later.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

Much like the first part of the summary, this section shows what
happens when you press "Combine" at the Relic Master NPC and get the
message "Critical Success!". Again, it takes no eagle eye vision to
realize that there's an underlying system, and that that system isn't
as random as you might have thought.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

This shows the relationship between the first two sections - the
chances of Critical Successes throughout all tiers. But what this also
shows, is a distinction between the critical combinations in what I've
come to call Standard Crits, High Crits, and Super Crits. We'll get to
these in a moment.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

And finally, we have the upgrade factor. You need 5 relics to make a
combination from tier 1 through 7 (and 2 relics at tier , but due to
the above you can see that a combination gives more than just 1 relic
of the next tier. As you'll soon discover, this difference has a
profound impact on the entire system.

So that's the overall picture. Let's try and draw some conclusions from it.

The relic system
The relic system is not as random as you might think. Even though you
can't predict or influence the outcome, that outcome follows a strict
pattern that is consistent no matter the tier of the relics, which
relics you combine, or how you combine them. Each time you combine
relics, there are two types of outcomes: you have 90% chance of making
a regular combination, and 10% chance of making one of three types of
critical combinations.

• Standard crit (75% of all crits) yields 3-4 relics of the next tier
  
• High crit (20% of all crits) yields 3-4 relics of the next tier and 3-4 relics of the second tier after
  
• Super crit (5% of all crits) yields 3-4 relics of the next tier and 3-4 relics of the third tier after
  

On top of this there's a cap making sure that you can never get
more than two tier 7 and/or 8 relics, no matter the type of combination[1] (which means that a regular tier 6 combination can actually yield more
than a standard crit tier 6!). Though critical combinations seriously
boost the value of one relic, even regular combinations can yield 1-2
relics of the same tier, and 1-2 relics of the next. So effectively you
don't need 5 relics to get 1 relic of the next tier. We can call this
the upgrade factor - that is, the amount of relics needed to get one
relic of the next tier.

• The upgrade factor is very close to 2,46[2].
  That means on average, including both regular and critical
  combinations, you need this amount of relics to get to the next tier.
  
• To get a tier 8 relic on average takes 545 tier 1 relics - as opposed to the 78125 most people talk about.
  

Putting things into perspective
So what does all this tell us about our chances of getting the relic we
want? Ultimately, nothing. The difference in time needed because that
tier 7 combination critted vs. didn't crit is much too big to try and
base any final answer on. However, we're now capable of figuring out
statistically how much it would require, and therefore in terms how
long it should take.

So let's see. The upgrade factor we've discovered is 2,46, so to get a
tier 8 relic you would need 545 tier 1 relics (2,46^7). How to get that
amount? From personal experience a level 2 item deconstruction is worth
8,0 tier 1 relics[3],
so you could get that from deconstructing 68 legendary items at level
2. Another personal experience is that you get 8,1 Khadzul Tablets per
hour when farming Library of Steel[4]. Excluding
the time needed to turn in tablets, and level and deconstruct the
items, you need little over eight hours of farming Library of Steel to
get a tier 8 relic. Starting from scratch then, you can get the best
relics in the game in a day's effort - statistically.

Wether that's a motivating piece of information or not, I'll leave to you.



[1]: Note that this is based on very little data. The logic behind our
reasoning is that of all our critical combinations, the ones at tier 7
and 8 were the only that stood out. Since we've never heard of anyone
making tier 8 combinations yielding more than 2 tier 8 relics, we
assume that this is a cap implemented to overwrite the general system
to make things more fair (imagine what critting a tier 6 relic into 4
tier 8 and 3 tier 7 would do for balance).
[2]: The upgrade factor can only look at the next rune, since going
beyond that wound depend on the upgrade factor, which is a circular
reference. As such, it is not possible to measure the influence of high
crit and super crits. All we can do is know that they're unlikely to
occur, but that when they do they have a big impact. The actual upgrade
factor - if there could ever be such a thing - would be even lower than
the one you see here, and thus the effort required to progress through
the tiers is even lower than depicted in this post.
[3]: Based on the results of 126 deconstructed level 2 weapons during MOM Patch 2. You can view the spreadsheet [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.].
[4]: Based on the results of 100 runs accomplished during MOM Patch 2. You can view the spreadsheet [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.].